CCRO Scenario Workshops

Overview

The level of uncertainty in the current US energy industry is unlike anything since the 1970s. With the energy transition proceeding even as we face uncertain energy policy, the energy industry is anticipating commodity price volatility, shocks to both demand and supply, mounting challenges to reliability and affordability, extreme weather events, and potential geopolitical crises. These factors may lead to future market conditions entirely unlike any that historical data analyses might capture.

Scenario analysis is a vital tool that can enable organizations to explore future risks without relying on rich historical data as a basis for analyses. However, this also means scenarios used must be robust and plausible for them to be actionable. Having well-developed scenarios is essential for broadening our understanding of the possible future outcomes and identifying potential risk mitigation alternatives. Best practice scenarios are especially important in multi-stakeholder environments, as they foster a shared understanding and common vocabulary for discussing the potential futures.

Our scenario development workshop is a collaborative, strategic planning session designed to explore and prepare for potential future scenarios that could impact the energy industry and each of our organizations.

We are planning two phases for these workshops. Phase 1 addresses scenario development best practices. Phase 2 will address scenario modeling practices and explore tools available for modeling today.

Phase 1 Workshop Objective

We want to engage multiple perspectives while we develop a deeper understanding of the potential uncertainties and their fundamental drivers, and explore a range of potential futures. By exploring different potential futures, the workshop aims to enhance the risk officer’s role in strategic decision-making and improve organizational resilience to uncertainties.

Phase 1 Workshop Deliverables

The workshop produces a set of fundamentally different, and yet plausible scenarios that illustrate different possible futures. Scenarios are built from coherent and meaningful combinations of drivers and are translated into provocative but plausible narratives. They enable a group of diverse participants to create a shared language and understanding of the future. Participants in this workshop will leave with the following benefits:

• Engage with a diverse group of industry executives in a discussion of the future of the US energy industry and the energy transition

• Build a full understanding of the process and methodology for scenario analysis that could be applied in their own organizations

• Develop a set of currently relevant and fully developed scenarios to use and to demonstrate the value of scenario analysis to their own organizations

• Collaborate with the CCRO and its membership to expand our capacity to develop and model scenarios, including utilizing 3rd party scenarios

Who Should Participate?

We are looking for diverse participation across CCRO membership as well as invited guests. Depending on the number and sector focus of the participants (e.g. power, oil & gas, LNG), we will be flexible and adapt workshop design to make the workshop as valuable as possible to participants. Diverse representation ensures a broad range of perspectives and expertise, which enriches the scenario-building process.

Workshop Leaders

In response to feedback and guidance from the membership, the CCRO is planning a series of workshops dedicated to advancing best practices in scenario analysis for risk management.

Our first workshop is in March of 2025

Let us know about your interest in attending by completing this form…

The workshop aims to enhance the risk officer’s role in strategic decision-making and improve organizational resilience to uncertainties